The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently announced that it will release its Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) which presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040 in the near term. The analysis focuses on: Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource.
The analysis in AEO2015 focuses on six cases: Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource. Select projections include:
• U.S. net energy imports decline and ultimately end in most AEO2015 cases, driven by growth in U.S. energy production—led by crude oil and natural gas—increased use of renewables, and only modest growth in demand. Net energy imports end before 2030 in the AEO2015 Reference case and before 2020 in the High Oil Price and High Oil and Gas Resource cases (Figure 1). Significant net energy imports persist only in the Low Oil Price and High Economic Growth cases, where U.S. supply is lower and demand is higher.
• Natural gas production growth results largely from the development of shale gas resources in the Lower 48 states, which more than offsets declines in other Lower 48 onshore production. In the Reference case, total domestic production grows 45% between 2013 and 2040 in the Reference case, reaching 35.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) by 2040, with shale gas production growing from 11.3 Tcf in 2013 to 19.6 Tcf in 2040.
• Renewable electricity generation accounts for 38% of the growth in electricity generation from 2013 to 2040, and its share of total generation increases from 13% in 2013 to 18% in 2040 in the Reference case. State and national policy requirements play an important role in continuing growth of renewable energy generation. The largest growth occurs in wind and solar generation.
• Electricity generation from nuclear power plants in the Reference case grows 6% between 2013 and 2040, from 789 billion killowathours (kWh) to 833 billion kWh, accounting for about 16 % of total generation in 2040 (compared with 19% in 2013).
• Total U.S. liquids supply grows from 18.9 million bbl/d in 2013 to 19.2 million bbl/d in 2040 in the Reference case, driven by strong growth in crude oil production, particularly tight oil.
• Technology and policy promote slower growth of energy demand. U.S. energy use grows at 0.3%/year from 2013 through 2040 in the Reference case, far below the rates of economic growth (2.4%/year) and population growth (0.7%/year). Decreases in transportation and residential sector energy consumption partially offset growth in other sectors. Declines in energy use reflect the use of more energy-efficient technologies as well as the effect of existing policies that promote increased energy efficiency. Fuel economy standards and changing driver behavior keep motor gasoline consumption below recent levels through 2040 in the Reference case.
Press conference announcing release of AEO2015