NASEO and EIA Host 2016-2017 Winter Energy Outlook

On October 13, 2016, NASEO, in partnership with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), hosted a 2016 - 2017 Winter Energy Outlook Webinar to address the outlook for global oil, natural gas, and propane supplies and prices, and the effect of projected winter weather on the demand for these heating, agricultural, and transportation fuels. The webinar included a presentation on EIA's 2016 Winter Fuels Outlook as well as a presentation from Citi Research on anticipated winter weather impacts on the energy sector. Highlight's from EIA's outlook include:

• Average U.S. household energy expenditures are projected to increase from last winter. EIA also projects bills during the upcoming winter heating season could increase due to higher expected heating demand and higher fuel prices by:

o 38% for heating oil;
o 26% for propane; and
o 22% for natural gas.

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts U.S. heating degree days this winter to be 13% higher than last winter, but below the actual 10-year average.
• Residential natural gas prices are forecast to average $10.37 per thousand cubic feet, 11.3% higher than last winter and consumption is forecast to be 10% higher than last winter.
• EIA expects households heating primarily with heating oil to spend an average of $378 (38%) more this winter than last winter, reflecting retail prices that are $0.42/gal (20%) higher and consumption that is 15% higher.
• EIA expects these households using propane to spend less on heating this winter than in eight out of the past ten winters, but more than last winter, when both heating demand and propane prices were low. The projected increase in expenditures from last winter varies by region. EIA expects that households heating with propane in the Midwest will spend an average of $290 (30%) more this winter than last winter, reflecting prices that are about 14% higher and consumption that is 13% higher than last winter

Presentations and the webinar recording are available on the NASEO website.

Date Posted: 10/14/2016